TrueCar Releases Analysis of July Industry Sales - PR Newswire

Summary

A shift in incentives appears to be an industry response to growing affordability concerns

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc . (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,119,712 units in July 2022, down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 15% from July 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 975,597 units, down 14% from a year ago and down 1% from June 2022.

A shift in incentives appears to be an industry response to growing affordability concerns

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc . (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,119,712 units in July 2022, down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 15% from July 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 975,597 units, down 14% from a year ago and down 1% from June 2022.

Average New Car Incentives

"This month we're seeing the first response from the industry to address affordability concerns, by increasing incentives for the first time in nearly 20 months," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Even before the latest bump in federal interest rates, consumers were facing rising challenges to vehicle affordability. As rates go up, consumers are faced with increased monthly payments, even as average transaction prices remain flat."

And while inventory remains close to historically low levels, there is some emerging distinction between these levels among various OEMs.

"OEMs that have inventory and supply are weathering the drop in sales differently than the ones that don't," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "There may be long term implications for brands that are low on inventory, as those brands could lose some loyal customers."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

Total sales for July 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Fleet sales for July 2022 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 7% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 7% from when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Incentive spend is down 54% from last year but up slightly from June 2022 .

. Average transaction price is projected to be up 12% from a year ago and about the same as June 2022 .

. Total SAAR is expected to be down 15% from a year ago at 13 million units.

Used vehicle sales for July 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 17% from a year ago and up 4% from June 2022 .

are expected to reach 3 million, down 17% from a year ago and up 4% from . The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% compared to June 2022 at 5.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.5%.

at 5.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.5%. The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months, both up about one month since last July.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) BMW 29,767 28,845 28,744 3.2 % 7.2 % 3.6 % 3.6 % Daimler 31,514 24,977 32,494 26.2 % 31.0 % -3.0 % -3.0 % Ford 156,105 118,917 151,182 31.3 % 36.3 % 3.3 % 3.3 % GM 182,874 197,697 199,679 -7.5 % -3.9 % -8.4 % -8.4 % Honda 68,090 135,542 71,048 -49.8 % -47.8 % -4.2 % -4.2 % Hyundai 60,374 73,680 67,597 -18.1 % -14.9 % -10.7 % -10.7 % Kia 61,188 70,099 65,142 -12.7 % -9.4 % -6.1 % -6.1 % Nissan 51,648 80,456 55,122 -35.8 % -33.3 % -6.3 % -6.3 % Stellantis 136,936 142,065 134,456 -3.6 % 0.1 % 1.8 % 1.8 % Subaru 41,351 50,125 43,175 -17.5 % -14.3 % -4.2 % -4.2 % Tesla 46,298 26,200 42,757 76.7 % 83.5 % 8.3 % 8.3 % Toyota 165,758 225,917 167,823 -26.6 % -23.8 % -1.2 % -1.2 % Volkswagen Group 53,093 55,754 51,034 -4.8 % -1.1 % 4.0 % 4.0 % Industry 1,119,712 1,291,775 1,144,772 -13.3 % -10.0 % -2.2 % -2.2 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) BMW 28,850 27,125 27,855 6.4 % 10.5 % 3.6 % 3.6 % Daimler 29,608 23,969 30,559 23.5 % 28.3 % -3.1 % -3.1 % Ford 117,280 88,396 113,284 32.7 % 37.8 % 3.5 % 3.5 % GM 151,946 172,980 158,839 -12.2 % -8.8 % -4.3 % -4.3 % Honda 65,528 132,472 68,503 -50.5 % -48.6 % -4.3 % -4.3 % Hyundai 59,775 69,555 66,897 -14.1 % -10.8 % -10.6 % -10.6 % Kia 56,625 67,700 60,147 -16.4 % -13.1 % -5.9 % -5.9 % Nissan 41,953 69,278 43,310 -39.4 % -37.1 % -3.1 % -3.1 % Stellantis 112,485 127,443 110,028 -11.7 % -8.3 % 2.2 % 2.2 % Subaru 40,014 49,301 41,734 -18.8 % -15.7 % -4.1 % -4.1 % Tesla 43,475 26,200 40,150 65.9 % 72.3 % 8.3 % 8.3 % Toyota 144,205 209,320 147,224 -31.1 % -28.5 % -2.1 % -2.1 % Volkswagen Group 51,321 53,919 49,193 -4.8 % -1.2 % 4.3 % 4.3 % Industry 975,597 1,176,284 989,504 -17.1 % -13.9 % -1.4 % -1.4 %

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change

(Daily Selling Rate) BMW 916 1,720 889 -46.7 % -44.7 % 3.1 % 3.1 % Daimler 1,905 1,008 1,935 89.1 % 96.4 % -1.5 % -1.5 % Ford 38,825 30,521 37,898 27.2 % 32.1 % 2.4 % 2.4 % GM 30,929 24,717 40,840 25.1 % 29.9 % -24.3 % -24.3 % Honda 2,561 3,070 2,545 -16.6 % -13.4 % 0.7 % 0.7 % Hyundai 599 4,125 700 -85.5 % -84.9 % -14.5 % -14.5 % Kia 4,563 2,399 4,995 90.2 % 97.5 % -8.6 % -8.6 % Nissan 9,695 11,178 11,812 -13.3 % -9.9 % -17.9 % -17.9 % Stellantis 24,451 14,622 24,428 67.2 % 73.7 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Subaru 1,338 824 1,441 62.2 % 68.5 % -7.2 % -7.2 % Tesla 2,823 - 2,607

8.3 % 8.3 % Toyota 21,554 16,597 20,599 29.9 % 34.9 % 4.6 % 4.6 % Volkswagen Group 1,773 1,835 1,841 -3.4 % 0.3 % -3.7 % -3.7 % Industry 144,114 115,491 155,268 24.8 % 29.6 % -7.2 % -7.2 %

Fleet Penetration Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change BMW 3.1 % 6.0 % 3.1 % -48.4 % -0.5 % Daimler 6.0 % 4.0 % 6.0 % 49.9 % 1.5 % Ford 24.9 % 25.7 % 25.1 % -3.1 % -0.8 % GM 16.9 % 12.5 % 20.5 % 35.3 % -17.3 % Honda 3.8 % 2.3 % 3.6 % 66.1 % 5.0 % Hyundai 1.0 % 5.6 % 1.0 % -82.3 % -4.3 % Kia 7.5 % 3.4 % 7.7 % 117.9 % -2.7 % Nissan 18.8 % 13.9 % 21.4 % 35.1 % -12.4 % Stellantis 17.9 % 10.3 % 18.2 % 73.5 % -1.7 % Subaru 3.2 % 1.6 % 3.3 % 96.7 % -3.1 % Tesla 6.1 % 0.0 % 6.1 %

0.0 % Toyota 13.0 % 7.3 % 12.3 % 77.0 % 5.9 % Volkswagen Group 3.3 % 3.3 % 3.6 % 1.4 % -7.5 % Industry 12.9 % 8.9 % 13.6 % 44.0 % -5.1 %

Total Market Share Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual BMW 2.7 % 2.2 % 2.5 % Daimler 2.8 % 1.9 % 2.8 % Ford 13.9 % 9.2 % 13.2 % GM 16.3 % 15.3 % 17.4 % Honda 6.1 % 10.5 % 6.2 % Hyundai 5.4 % 5.7 % 5.9 % Kia 5.5 % 5.4 % 5.7 % Nissan 4.6 % 6.2 % 4.8 % Stellantis 12.2 % 11.0 % 11.7 % Subaru 3.7 % 3.9 % 3.8 % Tesla 4.1 % 2.0 % 3.7 % Toyota 14.8 % 17.5 % 14.7 % Volkswagen Group 4.7 % 4.3 % 4.5 %

96.9 % 95.2 % 97.0 %

Retail Market Share Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual BMW 3.0 % 2.3 % 2.8 % Daimler 3.0 % 2.0 % 3.1 % Ford 12.0 % 7.5 % 11.4 % GM 15.6 % 14.7 % 16.1 % Honda 6.7 % 11.3 % 6.9 % Hyundai 6.1 % 5.9 % 6.8 % Kia 5.8 % 5.8 % 6.1 % Nissan 4.3 % 5.9 % 4.4 % Stellantis 11.5 % 10.8 % 11.1 % Subaru 4.1 % 4.2 % 4.2 % Tesla 4.5 % 2.2 % 4.1 % Toyota 14.8 % 17.8 % 14.9 % Volkswagen Group 5.3 % 4.6 % 5.0 %

96.7 % 95.0 % 96.8 %

ATP

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YOY MOM BMW $63,548 $57,699 $64,685 10.1 % -1.8 % Daimler $65,614 $64,427 $64,236 1.8 % 2.1 % Ford $53,865 $50,566 $52,475 6.5 % 2.6 % GM $51,079 $47,939 $50,519 6.6 % 1.1 % Honda $38,302 $32,972 $37,764 16.2 % 1.4 % Hyundai $36,510 $33,369 $37,640 9.4 % -3.0 % Kia $35,231 $30,496 $35,697 15.5 % -1.3 % Nissan $35,666 $32,828 $35,970 8.6 % -0.8 % Stellantis $54,402 $49,189 $54,066 10.6 % 0.6 % Subaru $34,897 $33,767 $35,611 3.3 % -2.0 % Toyota $40,970 $37,682 $40,765 8.7 % 0.5 % Volkswagen Group $44,701 $42,447 $45,706 5.3 % -2.2 % Industry $45,352 $40,489 $45,364 12.0 % 0.0 %

$4,863

-$12

Incentives

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YOY MOM BMW $1,193 $4,278 $1,130 -72.1 % 5.6 % Daimler $1,398 $3,625 $1,283 -61.4 % 9.0 % Ford $1,003 $2,417 $1,046 -58.5 % -4.1 % GM $1,772 $3,345 $1,609 -47.0 % 10.1 % Honda $765 $2,064 $696 -62.9 % 9.9 % Hyundai $452 $1,664 $486 -72.8 % -6.9 % Kia $541 $2,472 $582 -78.1 % -7.0 % Nissan $1,118 $2,365 $1,177 -52.7 % -5.0 % Stellantis $1,909 $2,963 $1,895 -35.6 % 0.8 % Subaru $701 $1,336 $763 -47.5 % -8.1 % Toyota $759 $2,005 $753 -62.2 % 0.8 % Volkswagen Group $1,214 $2,902 $1,162 -58.2 % 4.5 % Industry $1,162 $2,536 $1,110 -54.2 % 4.7 %

-$1,374

$52

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YOY MOM BMW 1.9 % 7.4 % 1.7 % -74.7 % 7.5 % Daimler 2.1 % 5.6 % 2.0 % -62.1 % 6.7 % Ford 1.9 % 4.8 % 2.0 % -61.0 % -6.6 % GM 3.5 % 7.0 % 3.2 % -50.3 % 8.9 % Honda 2.0 % 6.3 % 1.8 % -68.1 % 8.4 % Hyundai 1.2 % 5.0 % 1.3 % -75.2 % -4.0 % Kia 1.5 % 8.1 % 1.6 % -81.1 % -5.8 % Nissan 3.1 % 7.2 % 3.3 % -56.5 % -4.2 % Stellantis 3.5 % 6.0 % 3.5 % -41.7 % 0.1 % Subaru 2.0 % 4.0 % 2.1 % -49.2 % -6.2 % Toyota 1.9 % 5.3 % 1.8 % -65.2 % 0.3 % Volkswagen Group 2.7 % 6.8 % 2.5 % -60.3 % 6.8 % Industry 2.6 % 6.3 % 2.4 % -59.1 % 4.7 %

Revenue

Manufacturer Jul 2022 Forecast Jul 2021 Actual Jun 2022 Actual YOY MOM Industry $50,780,980,394 $52,302,194,540 $51,931,220,369 -2.9 % -2.2 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com , and follow us on LinkedIn , Facebook or Twitter .

SOURCE TrueCar.com

TrueCar Releases Analysis of July Industry Sales - PR Newswire
Photo Credit: PR Newswire

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