Got $100? These Beaten-Down Stocks Are Gearing Up for Bull Runs - The Motley Fool

Summary

Adding to sold-off stocks can often feel like an uncomfortable proposition for investors. However, it is crucial to remember that stock price movements and a business's operational performance are often two very different things.

This divergence can create once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for investors focused on the long term as they receive the rare chance to buy great companies at fair valuations.

Adding to sold-off stocks can often feel like an uncomfortable proposition for investors. However, it is crucial to remember that stock price movements and a business's operational performance are often two very different things.

This divergence can create once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for investors focused on the long term as they receive the rare chance to buy great companies at fair valuations.

Here, three Motley Fool contributors will look at some of their favorite beaten-down stocks to add $100 to right now in Disney (DIS -1.40%), Etsy (ETSY 0.25%), and Crocs (CROX -1.64%).

A beloved brand trading at a discount

Bradley Guichard (Disney): The stock of one of the most iconic global brands in history is down 45% from its 52-week high. It's time for savvy long-term investors to take notice. The pandemic and a potential recession are a one-two punch, but far from a knockout blow. In fact, Disney has opportunities to outperform the market from here significantly.

Streaming wars are heating up, and Disney may soon be the one to beat. The global video streaming market was $59 billion in 2021 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% through 2030, according to one estimate. Capturing as much of this market as possible is crucial to Disney's future. Disney services Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ are exploding while industry-leading Netflix is losing subscribers.

In the second quarter, Disney+ added nearly 8 million subscribers, bringing Disney's total across all services to 205 million. People are also flocking back to the parks, pushing total revenues up 29% for the first half of 2022 over the same period in 2021.

Unfortunately, costs are also rising due to inflation, a tight labor market, and heavy spending on content for streaming services. These expenses dampened Q2 results. Net income from continuing operations fell to $577 million from 1.1 billion in the first quarter. This has investors concerned that if inflation gets worse, margins will continue to fall. A recession could also cause a dropoff in visitors to parks.

But we don't beat the market by buying stock when everything is fantastic; by then, it's too late. We need to think ahead. Disney's streaming business is just scratching the surface of its potential, and the company has seen much worse economic times in its 98-year history. It has always bounced back because the product is that compelling. The stock trades for around $100 per share now, near the worst of the March 2020 market crash. With a lot of pessimism already priced in, long-term investors get terrific potential with this contrarian pick.

Strong growth with plenty of opportunity ahead

Jeff Santoro (Etsy): It's been a wild past few years in the stock market for specialty e-commerce marketplace Etsy. After hitting a pandemic-induced low of $32 in March 2020, the stock soared to a high of $297 in late 2021 before tumbling down $69 a few weeks ago. Since then, the stock has had a nice run-up to its current price of $96, and I think that could be just the beginning.

Etsy operates a two-sided marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of unique and creative items. Being the major player in this niche has proven successful for the company, and the most recently reported results, Q1 2022, demonstrated strong growth.

Etsy pulled forward a lot of growth during the pandemic, drastically affecting several quarters in 2020 and early 2021. As a result, recent year-over-year comparisons appear weaker than they are. For example, Etsy's Q1 revenue increased 5% to $579 million, but that was on top of growth of 142% in Q1 2021. On a two-year basis, revenue has grown 154%.

Sticking with the two-year comparisons, the growth on the platform has been impressive. The number of sellers has increased more than 100% since Q1 2020, and buyers have grown more than 80%. This has led to gross merchandise sales (the sum of all sales on Etsy's platform) of $2.8 billion, an increase of more than 130%.

Even with this strong growth, Etsy believes there's a large market opportunity in front of it. In addition to the 89 million users Etsy classifies as being active buyers, there are another 100 million that haven't purchased anything in over a year, providing an opportunity for engagement of existing users.

Additionally, Etsy has approximately 180 million unique visitors to Etsy.com each month, providing another cohort to try to monetize. Lastly, in Etsy's seven core markets, the company's all-time buyer penetration is below 50%.

It remains to be seen what percentage of these identified groups can be converted into active buyers, but it's clear that Etsy is nowhere near market saturation. Etsy's track record of growth is reason to believe it can continue to grow, but time will tell.

Etsy currently has a price-to-sales ratio of 6, trading below its average of 8.7. So while the stock isn't necessarily cheap, it is trading for around where it was in early 2020, a time frame over which the company has grown considerably. If Etsy is able to continue to grow at its historical rate, the current beaten-down stock price may be a gift to investors.

How low can this valuation go?

Josh Kohn-Lindquist (Crocs): While I cannot claim to be a brand ambassador for Crocs, the fact remains that it is one of the biggest retail success stories over the last five years -- rising over 2,000% before its recent sell-off.

After selling over 720 million pairs of foam shoes since its genesis in 2002, Crocs continued its growth story in the first quarter of 2022, posting Crocs-specific year-over-year sales growth of 19%. However, if you include the sales from its recent $2.5 billion acquisition of HeyDude, revenue jumped 44% for the same period.

To fund this acquisition, Crocs took out a $2 billion loan that matures in 2029 -- leading to a spike in the company's net debt.

While Crocs still earns 18 times as much as it will be required to pay in interest, its stock has dropped nearly 50% since the acquisition announcement, partially due to concerns over this elevated debt balance. Considering that Crocs trades with a $4 billion market capitalization, this $2.6 billion debt leaves the company highly levered.

Due to this new debt, management announced it would be forgoing share buybacks for the immediate future to bring this balance back down to a more manageable level.

So with this increased debt, what makes Crocs interesting right now, you may ask?

First, Crocs continues to build its brand power, ranking 51st on Comparably's Top 100 Brands and 50th on its Top Brands for Gen Z lists. Second, HeyDude ranked 9th on Piper Sandler's Spring 2022 list, placing it in the top 10 for the second straight year.

Furthermore, Crocs still generates 58% of its revenue from North America -- highlighting a long growth runway remaining internationally. For example, China currently accounts for less than 5% of revenue, yet management expects this to grow to 10% by 2026.

With management guiding for $10.05 to $10.65 in earnings per share in 2022, the company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) of 5.6 looks quite alluring.

Guiding for annual sales growth of 17% for the Crocs brand through 2026 and 20% growth for HeyDude through 2024, this P/E ratio could prove to be an incredible steal. Should Crocs successfully reach (or even come close to) these goals of more than doubling its sales over the next few years, its debt load should quickly lower over time -- potentially setting the stock up for a strong bull run.

Got $100? These Beaten-Down Stocks Are Gearing Up for Bull Runs - The Motley Fool
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